基于对流尺度集合预报的飑线结构特征模拟与改善

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2019.01.001

Abstract

Abstract:

The convection-allowing ensemble forecast is a new direction for studying strong convective weather,such as squall lines.The current research on the structural characteristics of squall systems is mainly based on the high-resolution deterministic forecast combined with the satellite and radar data.In this paper,the structure of the squall line was analyzed from the perspective of ensemble forecast technology.A convection-allowing ensemble forecast experiment based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was conducted for a strong squall line in eastern China on July 30,2014.The probability matched mean (PMM) method was used to analyze synthetically the modelling results and verify the ability to simulate structural characteristics of the squall line.The results indicated that the convection-allowing ensemble forecast is able to simulate the basic structural characteristics of the squall line system.Compared with control prediction,the ensemble mean (EM) and PMM methods can improve significantly the structure of echo,a thermal field,dynamic field and microphysical field for the squall line.The modelling results also reflect the interaction between the near-surface cold pool and the vertical wind shear in the squall line system,which is consistent with the RKW theory.The echo intensity obtained from the PMM method is more close to the observations than that by the EM method,which means that it has a guiding significance to use the PMM method to study extreme weather events in the convection-allowing ensemble forecast.

Key words: Squall line, Convection-allowing ensemble forecast, Probability matched mean (PMM) method, Structural characteristics

CLC Number:

P435

MA Shen-jia, HE Hong-rang, CHEN Chao-hui, WU Dan, CHEN Sheng-jie. Simulation and improvement on structural characteristics of a squall line based on convection-allowing ensemble forecast[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2019, 35(1): 1-9.

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URL: http://www.jme1984.net.cn/EN/10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2019.01.001

http://www.jme1984.net.cn/EN/Y2019/V35/I1/1

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Simulation and improvement on structural characteristics of a squall line based on convection-allowing ensemble forecast

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